8 Things Every Financial Plan Starts With
Financial planning is unique for each person because no two plans look the same. Planning can also provide confidence to stay on track or make changes as life evolves.
The first step in planning is to examine one’s current financial situation by assessing budget, debt management, savings, retirement planning, insurance, and estate planning. The first year may be more complex due to marital status, assets, income, health, financial literacy, employee benefits, number of children, and future retirement income, all of which are factored into the plan.
- An Emergency Fund - An emergency fund is money saved in an account to use during financial stress to help improve economic security.
- A Monthly Budget - An estimate of income and expenses for a month.
- A Debt Reduction Plan - Paying off debt can lead to less financial stress and more financial independence.
- Saving Money - Saving money can fund future goals
- Improving One’s Tax Situation - A plan can detail tax-advantaged investment strategies that may help reduce one’s overall tax bill.
- Saving for Retirement - The retirement savings component of a plan illustrates projections based on an assumed rate of return. This information can help one determine if they are on track or need to revise their plan.
- Saving for Education - Including education savings in a plan can help estimate how much to save to reach an education funding goal.
- Saving for Other Goals - Whatever the goal, a plan can help one work toward having the finances to fund it.
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- Determine if you're on track with goals.
- Provide a second opinion.
- Evaluate the portfolio’s investment strategies and implement new strategies.
- Assess risk tolerance and time horizon to align with goals.
- Manage roadblocks that can impact finances - job loss, divorce, etc.
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In a short and sweet statement, the FOMC left rates unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% at their June meeting. Despite this decision and some expected easing in inflation, markets are still pricing in a 55% chance of a hike at the September meeting and pricing in at least one hike by the end of this year. That view likely reflects the hawkishly skewed June dot plot and was reinforced by the meeting minutes, which showed an upward revision to the inflation outlook, with inflation now expected to remain above 2% until the end of 2028. Officials also flagged AI-related spending as a potential source of current and future inflationary pressure.
While the committee seems hawkish, it is worth remembering that only 12 of the 19 FOMC participants who normally submit dot plots have voting power. Notably, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds voting power but did not submit a dot plot in June, consistent with his push for a shift in Fed communications. While the dot plot does not identify individual participants, this week’s chart uses recent speeches on growth, labor and inflation to show that the voting members of the committee currently skew more dovish than nonvoting members. Our analysis suggests the majority sit firmly in the hold or cut camp, which points to a potential disconnect with market pricing for hikes.
As investors weigh the Fed’s next move, paying attention to the outlook of the voting members of the committee can provide more helpful context than the dot plot alone.
Chart of the Week: Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Output derived by machine learning’s assessment of recent Fed speech, public remarks and dissents. Assessment is based on a qualitative judgement of each committee member’s stance on growth, inflation and labor markets, and thus an assumed view of near-term policy changes.
Thought of the Week: Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Assessment is based on a qualitative judgement of each committee member’s stance on growth, inflation and labor markets, and thus an assumed view of near-term policy changes.
Abbreviations: Cons. Sent.: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; CPI: Consumer Price Index; EIA: Energy Information Agency; FHFA HPI: - Federal Housing Finance Authority House Price Index; FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee; GDP: gross domestic product; HPI: Home Price Index; HMI: Housing Market Index; ISM Mfg. Index: Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index; PCE: Personal consumption expenditures; Philly Fed Survey: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey; PMI: Purchasing Managers' Manufacturing Index; PPI: Producer Price Index; SAAR: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Index: Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index; PCE: Personal consumption expenditures; Philly Fed Survey: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey; PMI: Purchasing Managers' Manufacturing Index; PPI: Producer Price Index; SAAR: Seasonally
Adjusted Annual Rate
MSCI EAFE is a Morgan Stanley Capital International Index that is designed to measure the performance of the developed stock markets of Europe, Australasia, and the Far East.
Bond Returns: All returns represent total return. Index: Bloomberg US Aggregate; provided by: Bloomberg Capital. Index: Bloomberg Investment Grade Credit; provided by: Bloomberg Capital. Index: Bloomberg Municipal Bond 10 Yr; provided by: Blomberg Capital. Index: Bloomberg Capital High Yield Index; provided by: Bloomberg Capital.
Key Interest Rates: 2 Year Treasury, FactSet; 10 Year Treasury, FactSet; 30 Year Treasury, FactSet; 10 Year German Bund, FactSet. 3 Month LIBOR, British Bankers’ Association; 3 Month EURIBOR, European Banking Federation; 6 Month CD, Federal Reserve; 30 Year Mortgage, Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA); Prime Rate: Federal Reserve.
Commodities: Gold, FactSet; Crude Oil (WTI), FactSet; Gasoline, FactSet; Natural Gas, FactSet; Silver, FactSet; Copper, FactSet; Corn, FactSet. Bloomberg Commodity Index (BBG Idx), Bloomberg Finance L.P.
information from FactSet's Pricing database as provided by MSCI. Russell 1000 Value Index,
Style Returns: Style box returns based on Russell Indexes with the exception of the Large-Cap Blend box, which reflects the S&P 500 Index. All values are cumulative total return for stated period including the reinvestment of dividends. The Index used from L to R,
top to bottom are: Russell 1000 Value Index (Measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to book ratios and lower forecasted growth values), S&P 500 Index (Index represents the 500 Large Cap portion of the stock market, and
is comprised of 500 stocks as selected by the S&P Index Committee), Russell 1000 Growth Index (Measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values), Russell Mid Cap Value Index (Measures
the performance of those Russell Mid Cap companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values), Russell Mid Cap Index (The Russell Midcap Index includes the smallest 800 securities in the Russell 1000), Russell Mid Cap Growth Index (Measures the performance of those Russell Mid Cap companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values), Russell 2000 Value Index (Measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values), Russell 2000 Index (The Russell 2000 includes the smallest 2000 securities in the Russell 3000), Russell 2000 Growth Index (Measures the performance of those Russell
2000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values).
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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